{"generatedAt":"2026-05-31T21:41:40.590Z","scenario":{"horizon":"two-quarters","compute":"neutral","agentReliability":"steady","openModels":"medium","regulation":"fragmented","budget":"normal","trust":"noisy"},"scenarioParams":{"horizon":"two-quarters","compute":"neutral","agentReliability":"steady","openModels":"medium","regulation":"fragmented","budget":"normal","trust":"noisy"},"presets":[{"id":"base","label":"Base Case","description":"The archive-weighted default view.","scenario":{"horizon":"two-quarters","compute":"neutral","agentReliability":"steady","openModels":"medium","regulation":"fragmented","budget":"normal","trust":"noisy"}},{"id":"agent-acceleration","label":"Agents Work Better","description":"Reliability improves and buyers fund real workflow tests.","scenario":{"horizon":"two-quarters","compute":"neutral","agentReliability":"fast","openModels":"medium","regulation":"fragmented","budget":"aggressive","trust":"quiet"}},{"id":"compute-squeeze","label":"Compute 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baseline.","factorLabels":[],"evidence":[{"id":"2024-02-21-china-s-open-weights-surge-arrives-deepseek-code-llama-70b-smaug-gemma","headline":"China's open-weights surge arrives (DeepSeek, Code Llama 70B, Smaug, Gemma)","issueDate":"2024-02-21","issueDateLabel":"Feb 21, 2024","sourceName":"Multiple Sources","sourceUrl":"https://blog.google/technology/developers/gemma-open-models/","url":"/stories/2024-02-21-china-s-open-weights-surge-arrives-deepseek-code-llama-70b-smaug-gemma"},{"id":"2025-05-05-meta-formalizes-llama-api","headline":"Meta Formalizes Llama API","issueDate":"2025-05-05","issueDateLabel":"May 5, 2025","sourceName":"OpenAI task digest","sourceUrl":"https://ai.meta.com/blog/llamacon-2025-recap/","url":"/stories/2025-05-05-meta-formalizes-llama-api"},{"id":"2024-09-11-mistral-pixtral-12b-mistral-s-first-vlm","headline":"Mistral Pixtral 12B — Mistral's first VLM","issueDate":"2024-09-11","issueDateLabel":"Sep 11, 2024","sourceName":"AlphaSignal","sourceUrl":"https://mistral.ai/news/pixtral-12b/","url":"/stories/2024-09-11-mistral-pixtral-12b-mistral-s-first-vlm"}]},{"id":"policy-structure","label":"Policy As Market Structure","plainLabel":"Policy shapes who can sell what","planningQuestion":"Where do rules, export controls, and procurement reshape markets?","moveNow":"List the jurisdictions, data classes, and high-risk uses that could constrain the next AI purchase or launch.","watchBeforeScaling":"Watch whether rules land through formal regulation, procurement terms, lawsuits, or sector gatekeepers.","evidenceThatWouldChangeThis":"A lighter policy period would reduce friction, but export controls or sector rules can still reshape vendor choice quickly.","score":70,"delta":0,"stateLabel":"Watch closely","explanation":"The current dials keep this trend close to its archive baseline.","factorLabels":[],"evidence":[{"id":"2025-02-13-paris-summit-pivots-from-safety-to-sovereignty","headline":"Paris summit pivots from safety to sovereignty","issueDate":"2025-02-13","issueDateLabel":"Feb 13, 2025","sourceName":"OpenAI task digest","sourceUrl":"https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/19504fb6c0feedb6","url":"/stories/2025-02-13-paris-summit-pivots-from-safety-to-sovereignty"},{"id":"2025-04-29-huawei-cloudmatrix-tops-h100","headline":"Huawei CloudMatrix Tops H100","issueDate":"2025-04-29","issueDateLabel":"Apr 29, 2025","sourceName":"OpenAI task digest","sourceUrl":"https://www.huawei.com/en/news/2025/4/cloudmatrix-384","url":"/stories/2025-04-29-huawei-cloudmatrix-tops-h100"},{"id":"2025-03-03-amodei-puts-superintelligence-clock-on-table","headline":"Amodei puts superintelligence clock on table","issueDate":"2025-03-03","issueDateLabel":"Mar 3, 2025","sourceName":"OpenAI task digest","sourceUrl":"https://tm.openai.com","url":"/stories/2025-03-03-amodei-puts-superintelligence-clock-on-table"}]},{"id":"physical-ai","label":"Physical AI Watch Lane","plainLabel":"Robotics moves from 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More trials expose reliability failures. Better controls restore trust and allow more deployment.","nodes":["Capability","Workflow trials","Failures exposed","Controls mature","Deployment"]},{"label":"Compute Pressure Loop","summary":"More capable models and heavier agents raise compute demand. Efficiency helps, but lower costs often unlock even more usage.","nodes":["Model demand","Compute cost","Efficiency","Usage expands","More demand"]},{"label":"Open Leverage Loop","summary":"Open models give buyers fallback options. Closed labs respond with bundling, reliability, and enterprise support.","nodes":["Open quality","Buyer leverage","Closed bundling","Hybrid routing","More leverage"]},{"label":"Trust And Regulation Loop","summary":"Deployment creates incidents and policy attention. Good governance can turn that scrutiny into clearer buying conditions.","nodes":["Deployment","Incidents","Policy pressure","Governance","Confidence"]}],"archiveRowsAnalyzed":1205,"method":{"runtimeLlm":false,"description":"Deterministic scenario scoring over TCD trend vectors, with evidence selected from published stories and knowledge_vault notes.","evidenceSource":"public.stories joined to public.knowledge_vault"}}