{"generatedAt":"2026-07-16T06:22:39.135Z","scenario":{"horizon":"two-quarters","compute":"neutral","agentReliability":"steady","openModels":"medium","regulation":"fragmented","budget":"normal","trust":"noisy"},"scenarioParams":{"horizon":"two-quarters","compute":"neutral","agentReliability":"steady","openModels":"medium","regulation":"fragmented","budget":"normal","trust":"noisy"},"presets":[{"id":"base","label":"Base Case","description":"The archive-weighted default view.","scenario":{"horizon":"two-quarters","compute":"neutral","agentReliability":"steady","openModels":"medium","regulation":"fragmented","budget":"normal","trust":"noisy"}},{"id":"agent-acceleration","label":"Agents Work Better","description":"Reliability improves and buyers fund real workflow tests.","scenario":{"horizon":"two-quarters","compute":"neutral","agentReliability":"fast","openModels":"medium","regulation":"fragmented","budget":"aggressive","trust":"quiet"}},{"id":"compute-squeeze","label":"Compute 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2024","sourceName":"AlphaSignal","sourceUrl":"https://mistral.ai/news/pixtral-12b/","url":"/stories/2024-09-11-mistral-pixtral-12b-mistral-s-first-vlm"}]},{"id":"policy-structure","label":"Policy As Market Structure","plainLabel":"Policy shapes who can sell what","planningQuestion":"Where do rules, export controls, and procurement reshape markets?","moveNow":"List the jurisdictions, data classes, and high-risk uses that could constrain the next AI purchase or launch.","watchBeforeScaling":"Watch whether rules land through formal regulation, procurement terms, lawsuits, or sector gatekeepers.","evidenceThatWouldChangeThis":"A lighter policy period would reduce friction, but export controls or sector rules can still reshape vendor choice quickly.","score":70,"delta":0,"stateLabel":"Watch closely","explanation":"The current dials keep this trend close to its archive baseline.","factorLabels":[],"evidence":[{"id":"2025-02-13-paris-summit-pivots-from-safety-to-sovereignty","headline":"Paris 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Forterra","sourceUrl":"https://www.forterra.com/posts/forterra-reveals-it-rapidly-manufactured-and-deployed-autonomous-systems-to-ukraine-at-scale-in-russo-ukrainian-war","url":"/stories/2026-07-09-forterra-ships-autonomy-into-ukraine"},{"id":"2026-06-28-nvidia-builds-robot-safety-stack","headline":"Nvidia Builds Robot Safety Stack","issueDate":"2026-06-28","issueDateLabel":"Jun 28, 2026","sourceName":"Superhuman / NVIDIA","sourceUrl":"https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-halos-for-robotics-the-industrys-first-full-stack-safety-system-for-physical-ai","url":"/stories/2026-06-28-nvidia-builds-robot-safety-stack"},{"id":"2026-06-24-nvidia-builds-a-robot-safety-stack","headline":"NVIDIA Builds A Robot Safety Stack","issueDate":"2026-06-24","issueDateLabel":"Jun 24, 2026","sourceName":"Mindstream / NVIDIA","sourceUrl":"https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-halos-for-robotics-the-industrys-first-full-stack-safety-system-for-physical-ai","url":"/stories/2026-06-24-nvidia-builds-a-robot-safety-stack"}]}],"causalLoops":[{"label":"Agent Adoption Loop","summary":"Better models increase workflow trials. More trials expose reliability failures. Better controls restore trust and allow more deployment.","nodes":["Capability","Workflow trials","Failures exposed","Controls mature","Deployment"]},{"label":"Compute Pressure Loop","summary":"More capable models and heavier agents raise compute demand. Efficiency helps, but lower costs often unlock even more usage.","nodes":["Model demand","Compute cost","Efficiency","Usage expands","More demand"]},{"label":"Open Leverage Loop","summary":"Open models give buyers fallback options. Closed labs respond with bundling, reliability, and enterprise support.","nodes":["Open quality","Buyer leverage","Closed bundling","Hybrid routing","More leverage"]},{"label":"Trust And Regulation Loop","summary":"Deployment creates incidents and policy attention. 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